Google’s future depends on the success —or failure— of its Gemini chatbot.
Following the debacle of Gemini’s launch back in February, Google is now taking steps to clean house.
The company recently announced that Prabhakar Raghavan, the head of its search and advertising division on whose watch the troubled release of Gemini happened, will move into a new role as Chief Technologist, reporting directly to CEO Sundar Pichai. He will be replaced by Nick Fox, VP of Product in the Search division and a long-time Google veteran. However, notably, Gemini will no longer fall under his purview. Instead, it’s being handed over to DeepMind, Google’s AI research group.
Moving Gemini to DeepMind could provide the AI product with a fighting chance to catch up with competitors like SearchGPT and Perplexity. Unlike the Search division, DeepMind is dedicated solely to AI advancements and has the kind of expertise the Search team likely lacks. If successful, this could help offset Google’s potential losses from search advertising as users increasingly shift from traditional search to chatbot-based queries. Instead of serving ads against search results, Google would place ads within Gemini’s conversations.
However, significant challenges remain. One major concern is that Gemini and Search are now under separate teams, which could create friction during integration of the two. (That is unless Google decides to let a Gemini search chatbot compete head-on with its own Search product. That is however unlikely given the importance of search ad sales for Google’s top-line.)
Another concern is whether Google can develop an unbiased Gemini. Given that management has allowed employees to bring their personal politics into the workplace, and that these biases inform product management decisions, it is not obvious to me that Google will be able to create an unbiased version of Gemini. While the “Black Pope” incident has mostly affected the tech community’s trust in Gemini so far, if these trust issues spilled over into Google’s mainstream user base, it could spell disaster for both Gemini and Google.
Finally, it took Google eight months to take corrective action after the botched Gemini launch. This slow response doesn’t inspire confidence in Google’s ability to remain agile in a rapidly changing tech landscape. Perhaps breaking up the company into smaller, more nimble units could, in fact, be a blessing in disguise for the company.
Ultimately, these changes might give Google a better shot at success — but it’s far from guaranteed.
But succeed the company must. Over 70% of Google’s revenue still comes from search advertising. As search chatbots improve, they will eventually replace traditional search altogether. And even if Gemini turns out to be a success, it’s unclear whether ad revenue from the chatbot will match what Google currently makes from Search. So, even in a best-case scenario, Google could end up a significantly smaller company.
As for the Search unit under Nick Fox, it’s likely we’ll see more of the same. Whether or not Gemini can fill the gap in search advertising revenue, Fox’s primary role may be to manage the gradual decline of Google’s Search product.
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