At this point, the fracas over TikTok will likely play out like this: The bill forcing TikTok-owner ByteDance to either sell the service or be banned will be passed into law after the November 2024 election. ByteDance will challenge the new law in courts. This may take a couple of years to settle, but eventually the law will stand. ByteDance will sell TikTok, but not the recommendation algorithm. TikTok will continue, but be less addictive, with muted reach and traffic for a somewhat less attractive ad channel into young demos.
My take is based on the latest on a possible ban or sale of @tiktok_us:
– A ban is unlikely since @ByteDance would probably prefer to get some money out of this rather than write off billions. Word is they would sell, albeit minus their addictive secret sauce algorithm.
– Potential buyer groups such as Former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin’s are already chomping on the bit.
– Creators protest the legislation since TikTok is great distribution and money for them
– It is unclear if the bill would be passed into law before the November election because TikTok’s 170M users are mostly millennials and zoomers, who are already at odds with @POTUS over Gaza, and who might be less likely to vote for Biden if the bill passed.
W Media Research 